TOPIC-1:Growth data
send conflicting signals.
The latest GDP data released by the
Central Statistics Office (CSO) raise more questions than they answer. While on
the face of it, the projection of 7.6 per cent growth at constant prices for
the fiscal year ending March 31 sounds both attainable
and impressive, a closer look at the
other sets of numbers, including the third-quarter reading, raises some flags.
The pace of economic expansion is estimated to
have slowed to 7.3 per cent in the three months ended December, from 7.7 per
cent (based on an upward revision) in the preceding
quarter. Separately, the gross value added (GVA) growth projections for seven of the nine industry
classifications for the full year show a slowdown from the comparable 12-month
period, which is a second flag. The two industries where the CSO expects
expansion in the current fiscal to outpace that
of last year are agriculture and manufacturing. The ‘agriculture, forestry and
fishing’ sector is estimated to expand 1.1 per cent in 2015-16 as against a 0.2
per cent contraction, and manufacturing is pencilled
to post 9.5 per cent growth, from 5.5 per cent in 2014-15. This is where it
gets more confusing. In its latest monetary policy review on February 2, the
Reserve Bank of India cited “slackening
agricultural and industrial growth” as a prime reason for a loss in economic
momentum in the third quarter. With the CSO data showing a 1 per cent GVA
contraction in agriculture in the period ended December and the RBI pointing to
a decline in rabi sowing by end-January, it is hard to see where the farm
sector will derive the necessary impetus
from in the current quarter to help undergird overall growth.
As far as manufacturing goes, the
January purchasing managers’ index (PMI) expanded to a four-month high, partly
helped by resumption of output at
factories affected by the December floods. Still, the sustainability of this expansion could be undermined as the same PMI release also pointed to
a drop in output and new orders for makers of investment goods. The weak
overseas demand environment, reflected in the protracted
exports slump,
is also a dampener. The robust growth estimate brings us to a crucial
related question: how reliable are the
data as currently calculated, a concern raised by several economists including
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. He has cautioned against laying too much store by
the numbers if they don’t adequately
capture the net economic impact of an activity. For instance,
under the new methodology indirect taxes are included and this is seen by some
experts as inflating the overall figures,
without necessarily resulting in increased output. The government has an
opportunity later this month to address many of these concerns and clarify on both the data points and
the rationale behind its methodology when
it presents the annual Economic Survey. It is important that it dispels all doubts and enhances the credibility of
official statistics at a time when India seeks its rightful place at the
high table of the world economic order.
VOCABULARY :
1.attainable :
able to be attained; achievable.
2.impressive :
evoking admiration through size, quality, or skill; grand, imposing, or
awesome.
3.estimated : roughly calculate or judge the value,
number, quantity, or extent of.
4.preceding : come before (something) in time.
5.projections : an
estimate or forecast of a future situation based on a study of present trends.
6.outpace : go, rise, or improve faster than.
7.pencilled :
write, draw, or colour with a pencil.
8.slackening :
reduce or decrease in speed or intensity.
9.impetus :
something that makes a process or activity happen or happen more quickly.
10.resumption :
the action of beginning something again after a pause or interruption.
11.sustainability
: ability or capacity of something to be maintained or to sustain itself.
12.undermined :
lessen the effectiveness, power, or ability of, especially gradually or
insidiously.
13.protracted :
lasting for a long time or longer than expected or usual.
14.slump : undergo
a sudden severe or prolonged fall in price, value, or amount.
15.dampener: a
thing that has a restraining or subduing effect.
16.robust : (of an object) sturdy in construction.
17.reliable :
consistently good in quality or performance; able to be trusted.
18.adequately :
something completed in a fashion that was acceptable and/or satisfactory.
19.instance : an
example or single occurrence of something.
20.inflating :
increase (something) by a large or excessive amount.
21.concerns : make
(someone) anxious or worried.
22.rationale : a
set of reasons or a logical basis for a course of action or belief.
23.dispels : make
(a doubt, feeling, or belief) disappear.
TOPIC-2:
Questions after the deposition.
Details from the ongoing deposition
of David Coleman Headley have brought back dark memories for India, not just of
the horror of the 2008 Mumbai attacks,
but also of the cold-blooded planning that went into the massacre of over 160 men, women and children. It
is certainly important that the Mumbai court has been able to record the testimony of Headley, and make part of Indian
court records all that he had told a court in the United States several years
ago. The testimony has not yet revealed
much that wasn’t in the court records, or in the testimony he gave before
National Investigation Agency officials in 2010. Even so, it will be
significant in the trial of Abu Jundal as well as in a future trial of Hafiz
Saeed and any of the masterminds in the unlikely event of Pakistan making them
available to India. Although the move from the U.S. authorities to arrange the
deposition of Headley for the Mumbai court now hearing the 26/11 conspiracy case has come late, it is still no less
welcome. The specifics of how Headley was sent to India, his contacts with the
Lashkar-e-Taiba leadership and the Inter-Services Intelligence officers he
names for having given him espionage
training, and even perhaps locals in India who may have colluded with him, are all vital to the case, and it is hoped that
prosecutors will extract more information from Headley in the coming days.
Clearly, the deposition from
Headley, who expects a full judicial pardon
in exchange for giving it, comes at a cost that must be counted. It has meant
that India gives up all chances of bringing the self-confessed terror planner,
who scoped out the locations to be
targeted as well as the entry and possible exit points for the LeT terrorists.
It also means that India has not questioned the delay from the U.S., and
prosecutors may not be able to fill the glaring
gaps in their understanding of Headley’s background that have been raised:
including his double role as a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration informant,
the cover for his frequent visits to India, including one after the 26/11
attacks, and the reasons his links with Pakistani military officials were not
investigated by the U.S. This is why after the hearing is completed the
government must be more forthcoming in explaining its decision to offer a
pardon. The deal may have been the best of imperfect choices before India, but
given the magnitude of the crime involved, the government must share the
details. The spotlight on Headley should
also convince Pakistan to fast-track its trial of the masterminds of the Mumbai
attacks, perhaps even accepting a similar deposition from Headley in the case.
Eventually, it is in the interest of India-Pakistan relations as well as
justice for the victims of 26/11 that the trial in Pakistan is brought to a
successful conclusion. If Headley’s deposition prompts that, the benefit will
override all other concerns.
VOCABULARY:
1.horror : an intense feeling of fear,
shock, or disgust.
2.massacre :
deliberately and brutally kill (many people).
3.testimony : a
formal written or spoken statement, especially one given in a court of law.
4.revealed : make
(previously unknown or secret information) known to others.
5.conspiracy : a
secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful.
6.espionage : the
practice of spying or of using spies, typically by governments to obtain
political and military information.
7.colluded : come to a secret understanding; conspire.
8.vital :
absolutely necessary; essential.
9.pardon : the
action of forgiving or being forgiven for an error or offence.
10.scoped : assess or investigate something.
11.glaring : giving
out or reflecting a strong or dazzling light.
12.spotlight :a lamp projecting a narrow, intense beam of
light directly on to a place or person, especially a performer on stage.
